Human activity has a greater impact than climate in driving environmental change. This is the conclusion of an international study by the University of Pisa on the major transformations of the landscape of northern Tuscany over the past two thousand years. Published in the journal Anthropocene, the research reconstructs in detail the environmental history of Lake Sibolla, a protected area near Altopascio, east of Lucca, through an integrated analysis of lake sediments, fossil pollen, historical sources and climate reconstructions.
“We believe that the Lucca case is not an exception,” explains Professor Giovanni Zanchetta of the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Pisa, one of the authors of the study. “As more case studies are added, integrating detailed historical archives with paleoecological data of adequate resolution, it will become increasingly clear that anthropogenic pressures tend to prevail over climatic ones in shaping environmental change.”
The study identifies three key phases of transformation. The first phase dates back to around 650 AD, following the end of the “Late Antique Little Ice Age”. During this period, the decline of three specific species coincided with the introduction of large landed estates linked to Lombard rule.
The second major shift occurred around the 11th century, during the so-called “Medieval Climate Anomaly”—a relatively warmer and more stable period roughly between 950 and 1250 AD. At this stage, forests gave way to a landscape dominated by shrubs, grasslands and cultivated fields, in parallel with the emergence of new religious and charitable institutions and the spread of seigneurial land rights.
The third phase is dated to the early 15th century, after the Black Death and in conjunction with the “Little Ice Age”. Contrary to what has been observed in many other European regions, the area around Lucca did not experience reforestation. Instead, agricultural activity intensified, particularly with the expansion of rye cultivation.
“From the integration of environmental data and historical sources, it emerges that climate certainly set constraints and created opportunities, but the most profound landscape transformations always coincide with changes in social structures and systems of territorial control,” Zanchetta concludes. “The Lucca case highlights how crucial local studies are—studies capable of combining historical archives with natural data—to truly understand long-term relationships between climate, society and the environment. Applied to other areas, this approach can also provide essential tools for interpreting today’s environmental challenges.”
From a methodological standpoint, the study is based on sediment cores extracted from the lakebed. Analysis of fossil pollen allowed researchers to reconstruct changes in vegetation over time, while radiocarbon dating provided a reliable chronology covering the past two millennia. These data were compared with climate reconstructions derived from tree rings, stalactites and stalagmites, as well as with one of Italy’s richest medieval historical archives—located in Lucca—which offers detailed documentation of land use, property rights and economic activities.
The research involved scholars from several Italian and international institutions. The work was coordinated by Scott Mensing of the University of Nevada (Reno), together with Theodore Dingemans of Augustana College and Edward Schoolman, also of the University of Nevada. A significant contribution came from the University of Pisa, with Paolo Tomei, Simone Maria Collavini and Federico Cantini from the Department of Civilisations and Forms of Knowledge, and Giovanni Zanchetta and Monica Bini from the Department of Earth Sciences. Additional contributors included Gianluca Piovesan (University of Tuscia), Adam Csank (University of Nevada), Annamaria Pazienza (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice), and Jordan Palli (University of Tuscia and University of Pisa).
